Here is the best website for economic and financial data analysis

0

To invest well in 2022, investors need to know what’s going on. The inflation cycle having arrived, a thorough analysis is essential. Having access to competitive and relevant data is essential today because media coverage of the effects of inflation is incomplete and misleading.

Luckily, there is an exceptional source, and it’s free. The website, FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data)has been managed by the economics team of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis for thirty years.

Data is updated as it is released and the website provides a wide variety of analysis tools. Full history is kept and everything is downloadable in many forms. Performing calculations and comparisons of several series is simple. Creating charts is also easy, with the ability to adjust presentation characteristics.

An example of using FRED for economic analysis

The example below demonstrates how to perform an analysis of recently released, but misreported Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). (For further explanation, see “Investors: Media confusion over inflation means we’re on our own”)

First, because most media reports

Focusing on the unadjusted data, let’s look at the comparison between nominal and inflation-adjusted (real) total spending. The nearly 3-year trend of indices starting at 100 in December 2018 is shown.“Most” of the media in this case does not include Bloomberg, who reported “

US inflation-adjusted spending stagnates as prices rise

Personal consumption expenditure – Nominal and inflation-indexed indices

Personal Consumption Expenditure – 12 Month Percent Change, Nominal and Inflation Adjusted

John Tobey (FRB St Louis – FRED)

PCE price index and 12-month change

Total PCE, services and goods 12-month percentage change in price indices

John Tobey (FRB St Louis – FRED)

Well, there is a difference. Service providers steadily increased their prices throughout 2019, in line with the general inflation rate of 2%. On the other hand, producers of goods have lagged, probably for reasons of demand and competition. Then the divergences of 2019 gave way to an upward trend in price catch-up by goods companies.

PCE goods – total, durable and non-durable 12-month percentage change in price indices

John Tobey (FRB St Louis – FRED)

Prices for durable and non-durable goods are moving only slightly differently, but both are showing the same faster increases this year.

With that, we have a fuller picture of what’s going on. Does this mean that current trends will continue? No, but that means real PCE growth has stalled and rising prices (inflation) have increased. It’s an unhealthy pattern. While this may change in 2022, this is a serious concern that investors need to acknowledge.

Here comes 2022… Be preparedGetty

Share.

Comments are closed.